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Base Rate Fallacy
Base Rate Fallacy
3 questions
Difficulty 3-5
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compute
A disease has 1% prevalence. A test has 95% sensitivity and 95% specificity. You test positive. What's the probability you actually have the disease?
Hide and think first
A.
About 50% (equal odds given a positive result)
B.
About 1% (equal to the base rate, unchanged by the test)
C.
About 16%
D.
About 95% (matching the test accuracy)
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