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Claim evidence, explained

What is checked, what is sourced, and what is still scoped.

Last reviewed: April 30, 2026 · Lean manifest 2026-04-28

TheoremPath tracks evidence at the claim level. A proof artifact can support one exact theorem statement; a source can support one specific claim; a diagnostic item can test one prerequisite skill. None of that turns a whole page into a blanket verification badge.

Machine-checked theorems

28

Lean declarations that compile in CI as claim-facing proof artifacts.

Exact claim matches

23

Formal statements whose recorded scope matches the governed claim.

Scoped support proofs

5

Useful bridges toward broader claims, kept separate to avoid overclaiming.

Incomplete proof markers

0

Lean placeholders across these checked entries: sorry=0, admit=0.

Plain-English rule

Lean is a proof checker. If a theorem compiles, the exact formal statement type-checks against Lean and mathlib.

Exact wrapper means the formal theorem matches the claim scope closely enough to count as claim-level evidence.

Scoped bridge means the proof is real, but it is only a step toward the public theorem. It stays labeled as a step.

Examples from the proof manifest

These are not marketing badges. Each card says what the theorem means in normal mathematical language, what exact Lean declaration checked it, and whether the proof matches the public claim or only supports part of it.

concentration inequalities

Markov Inequality

Matches claim scope

In plain English

A nonnegative random variable with small expectation cannot be large very often.

Why this matters

This is the first tail-bound bridge from averages to probability guarantees.

Checked theorem
TheoremPath.Probability.Concentration.markovInequalityRealIntegrable
Claim scope
real integrable nonnegative markov inequality
Proof scope
exact mathlib wrapper for markov
Mathlib source
MeasureTheory.mul_meas_ge_le_integral_of_nonneg

Exact claim-facing mathlib wrapper for Markov's inequality in real-valued integrable form. The finite weighted-support theorem remains a bridge proof, not the canonical verification target.

Checked April 28, 2026 · Lean 4.30.0-rc2 · mathlib 25b7ac7d0c

concentration inequalities

Hoeffding One Sided Finite Sum

Matches claim scope

In plain English

A bounded finite sum has an exponential one-sided deviation bound under the recorded assumptions.

Why this matters

This is the concentration step behind finite-class generalization arguments.

Checked theorem
TheoremPath.Probability.Concentration.hoeffdingBoundedFiniteSumTail
Claim scope
finite centered sum bounded hoeffding one sided
Proof scope
exact mathlib wrapper for bounded hoeffding finite sum tail
Mathlib source
ProbabilityTheory.hasSubgaussianMGF_of_mem_Icc, ProbabilityTheory.iIndepFun.comp, ProbabilityTheory.HasSubgaussianMGF.measure_sum_ge_le_of_iIndepFun

Exact claim-facing wrapper for the one-sided finite-sum Hoeffding bound for bounded independent real random variables.

Checked April 28, 2026 · Lean 4.30.0-rc2 · mathlib 25b7ac7d0c

subgaussian random variables

Hoeffding Lemma

Matches claim scope

In plain English

A bounded centered random variable has a sub-Gaussian moment-generating-function bound.

Why this matters

This is the standard bridge from bounded variables to Hoeffding-style tails.

Checked theorem
TheoremPath.Probability.Concentration.hoeffdingLemmaBoundedCenteredSubgaussianMGF
Claim scope
bounded centered real subgaussian mgf
Proof scope
exact mathlib wrapper for hoeffding lemma
Mathlib source
ProbabilityTheory.hasSubgaussianMGF_of_mem_Icc_of_integral_eq_zero

Exact mathlib wrapper for Hoeffding's lemma in sub-Gaussian MGF form. Source review now permits claim-level display without implying the whole page is Lean verified.

Checked April 29, 2026 · Lean 4.30.0-rc2 · mathlib 25b7ac7d0c

measure theoretic probability

Borel Cantelli First

Matches claim scope

In plain English

If event probabilities are summable, the limsup event has probability zero in the mathlib formulation.

Why this matters

This turns a previous finite bridge into a direct probability theorem wrapper.

Checked theorem
TheoremPath.Probability.BorelCantelli.borelCantelliFirstLimsupMeasureZero
Claim scope
first borel cantelli limsup atTop ennreal
Proof scope
exact mathlib wrapper for first borel cantelli
Mathlib source
MeasureTheory.measure_limsup_atTop_eq_zero, MeasureTheory.ae_eventually_notMem

Exact claim-facing mathlib wrapper for the first Borel-Cantelli lemma in limsup-measure-zero form. The finite union-bound artifacts remain supporting bridge proofs, not the source of verification.

Checked April 28, 2026 · Lean 4.30.0-rc2 · mathlib 25b7ac7d0c

kolmogorov probability axioms

Probability Measure Finite Union Bound

Matches claim scope

In plain English

The probability of a finite union is at most the sum of the individual probabilities.

Why this matters

This is a foundational tool used throughout concentration and learning theory.

Checked theorem
TheoremPath.Probability.KolmogorovAxioms.probabilityMeasureFiniteUnionBound
Claim scope
probability measure finite union bound
Proof scope
exact mathlib wrapper for probability measure finite union bound
Mathlib source
MeasureTheory.measure_biUnion_finset_le

Exact claim-facing wrapper for the finite union bound for probability measures.

Checked April 28, 2026 · Lean 4.30.0-rc2 · mathlib 25b7ac7d0c

common inequalities

Cauchy Schwarz Inequality

Matches claim scope

In plain English

The absolute inner product is bounded by the product of the two norms.

Why this matters

This is a reusable inequality across linear algebra, statistics, and optimization.

Checked theorem
TheoremPath.LinearAlgebra.CommonInequalities.cauchySchwarzRealInner
Claim scope
real inner product space cauchy schwarz
Proof scope
exact mathlib wrapper for cauchy schwarz core
Mathlib source
abs_real_inner_le_norm

Exact claim-facing mathlib wrapper for the core Cauchy-Schwarz inequality in real inner product spaces. Equality, probability, and finite-sum variants remain separate explanatory scopes until governed separately.

Checked April 28, 2026 · Lean 4.30.0-rc2 · mathlib 25b7ac7d0c

vc dimension

Sauer Shelah Lemma

Matches claim scope

In plain English

A finite set family with bounded VC dimension cannot shatter too many subsets.

Why this matters

This is a core combinatorial bridge behind classical learning-theory capacity bounds.

Checked theorem
TheoremPath.LearningTheory.VCDimension.sauerShelahFiniteSetFamily
Claim scope
finite set family sauer shelah binomial sum
Proof scope
exact mathlib wrapper for sauer shelah binomial sum
Mathlib source
Finset.card_le_card_shatterer, Finset.card_shatterer_le_sum_vcDim

Exact claim-facing mathlib wrapper for the finite set-family Sauer-Shelah binomial-sum bound. The common (em/d)^d analytic estimate is treated as a downstream corollary, not as part of this verified claim.

Checked April 28, 2026 · Lean 4.30.0-rc2 · mathlib 25b7ac7d0c

Scoped support

In plain English

The checked artifact is a scoped reduction step toward the finite-class uniform convergence theorem.

Why this matters

It is useful evidence, but it is deliberately not labeled as the full stochastic theorem.

Checked theorem
TheoremPath.LearningTheory.UniformConvergence.finiteClassEpsilonRepresentativeHighProbabilityFromOneSidedTails
Claim scope
finite class epsilon representative failure probability from one sided risk deviation tails
Proof scope
scoped high probability risk bridge for finite class uniform convergence
Mathlib source
MeasureTheory.measure_union_le, TheoremPath.Probability.FiniteUnionBound.finiteMeasureUnionBound

Scoped bridge artifact for finite-class uniform convergence. It proves the risk-facing high-probability reduction from paired one-sided true-risk/empirical-risk deviation tail bounds and a delta-sized finite-class union-bound expression to a simultaneous epsilon-representative failure bound, and now includes fixed-hypothesis empirical-average upper- and lower-tail Hoeffding bridges with explicit sample-size hypotheses; it does not verify iid sampling as the data-generating model or the closed-form sqrt/log sample-complexity display.

Checked April 30, 2026 · Lean 4.30.0-rc2 · mathlib 25b7ac7d0c

How this connects to diagnostics

Diagnostics should point to the same claim and prerequisite graph. If a learner misses a Hoeffding assumption question, the system should route them toward the bounded-difference or sub-Gaussian claim they actually missed, not simply say “study probability.”

That is why claim IDs, Q-matrix skill links, Lean evidence, and source support need to stay connected. The public page shows the standard; the internal dashboards hold the full review queue.

What waits before public badges

  • Evidence panels must show claim scope, not just page-level status.
  • Scoped bridges must be visually distinct from exact claim wrappers.
  • Topic pages need stable source and diagnostic links before any trust indicator is promoted.

For the rules behind this page, see methodology. For the theorem list, see key theorems.